Tesla does not slow down in China, where its production and wholesale shipments (local sales and export) continue to increase at a healthy rate.
According to the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA), in October, Tesla’s total Made-in-China (MIC) sales volume amounted to 71,704, which is 31.8% more than a year ago.
* CPCA reports wholesale shipments, not registrations/customer deliveries.
That’s one of the best monthly results (the best first month of a quarter), which indicates that the Tesla Giga Shanghai plant is running at a stable, high rate.
The report does not contain any details related to local sales and export or particular models (Model 3 or Model Y), which are expected to be announced later this month.
During the first ten months of the year, the total Tesla volume reached 554,778 (up 59% year-over-year).
According to the CPCA, Tesla’s cumulative wholesale volume from the Tesla Giga Shanghai amounted to over 1.16 million, including roughly 0.68 million in the past 12 months.
The Tesla Giga Shanghai plant is equipped to produce more than 750,000 electric cars annually, according to the Tesla Q3 2022 report. However, many believe that after the summer upgrade, the factory will be able to produce significantly more cars – even 1.1-1.2 million annually (or 100,000 per month). Considering over 230,000 sold in the last three months, the company might already be at a rate of over 900,000/year.
The main question is whether Tesla will be able to maintain high demand for the Model 3/Model Y in China? In recent months, the estimated order backlog dried out and the company lowered prices by 5-9%.
The second element is export of electric cars outside of China, but at least so far this year, export was responsible only for roughly one third of the Tesla Giga Shanghai’s output.
In the near term, we should see a really strong end of the year for Tesla in China – because of the lowered prices and because of the end of subsidies for BEVs. The year 2023, however, remains a mystery.
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